I was bold in the pursuit of knowledge, never fearing to follow truth and reason to whatever results they led…
~ Thomas Jefferson

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Recent Updates

• A Dangerous Market Full of Crosscurrents
  

• Caterpillar Ignites Fear for Equipment Stocks

• Who’s Driving the Bus? (Reflections on Cognitive Bias)

• Can Excess Focus Degrade Performance?

• Parsons’ Rules

• Lessons from the King of Blackjack

• Advantages of Mechanical Trade Management

• The Quiet Eye

• Better Decision Making Under Stress

Inspiration & Insight

(select a post)Parsons' RulesLessons from the King of BlackjackJeremy Lin, Role Model for TradersTrader Vic's Principles of TradingWisdom From Kovner"Think Only Of Cutting"Insight from "The Philosopher" Wisdom From BloombergThe Wyckoff SparkBilly Walters and the Fourth HorseFour Lessons from DruckenmillerWhere Do Trading Profits Come From?

Psychology, Emotion & Process

(select a post)Who's Driving the Bus? (Reflections on Cognitive Bias)Can Excess Focus Degrade Performance?The Quiet EyeBetter Decision Making Under StressPanic is For SuckersAdjusting Your Mental ModelOn the Art of LearningMental Conditioning and SEAL Team SixThe Trader's Mindset: Always Be ClimbingUpgrade Your Cognitive ToolkitImproving Your Decision Making SkillsKnowledge Work Athletics and Getting Things DoneA Simple Yet Effective Way To Immediately Raise Your Game

Trading Methodology

(select a post)Advantages of Mechanical Trade ManagementWhat to Look For - And What to Avoid! - in a Short-Term Trading SystemWhy You Should Consider a Short-Term Trading SystemAdding Efficiency To Your Trading ProcessThe Trouble With Inverse ETFs (And Other Structured Securities)Trend Trades vs Mean Reversion TradesSwing Trading in Two SentencesProportion and Perspective (Give That Chart Some Room)Weekender: On the Importance of Themes (and Getting Around)Why Trades Are Like College InternsHow to Avoid 'Sitcom Syndrome'The Viking Remedy: Concentration as Salvation

Trading & Poker

(select a post)The RENO Process, Part III: Respecting the NarrativeUtilizing the RENO Process, Part II: Four Types of EquityHow to Deal With ManiacsUtilizing the RENO Process, Part I: Range, Equity, Narrative, OddsThe Deep Stack Semi-Bluff Principle: Lessons in Contrarian Profit MaximizationPoker and Trading Stats: Why 90 Percent Lose (and Why You Can Win)Trading and Poker: Short-Legged Pool Table Lessons From the Felt: The Inestimable Value of Infinite Patience

Articles & Reviews

(select a post)The Advantage of Falling ShortDarwinian Bookies Gone Wild: "The Big Short" ReviewThe King is Dead, Long Live the King: "Exorbitant Privilege" ReviewThe Anti-Buffett Manifesto: "Eat People" ReviewMachiavelli for the 21st Century: "The Next Decade" ReviewWeekender: "The King of Oil" ReviewWeekender: Earthquakes, Power Laws, and Market BehaviorWeekender: "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader" ReviewOnions and Eggs: “The Futures” Book ReviewDeja Vu All Over Again -- "Devil Take the Hindmost" ReviewThose Whom the Gods Would Destroy -- Review of "A Hedge Fund Tale" Book Review: The Psychology of the Stock MarketThe Mathematics of PersistenceThe High Tech Trifecta (My Favorite Wired Article of All Time)

Risk Management

(select a post)The Calculated Risk MentalityO Risk Manager, Where Art Thou? Cockroaches, Extinction Events and Anti-FragilityThe Siren Song of High Winning PercentageGlobal Macro Notes: A Hard Look at Risk"What Everybody Knows is Frequently Wrong"LTCM and the Lessons of FailureClarium Capital and The Perils of Inflexibility"Staying Close to Shore"Why Traders FailIgnore the Predictors: Being "Right" vs. Making Money

Economics & Theory

(select a post)What Bowling and Trading Have in CommonLiving in a Zero Percent WorldInflationary Boom-Bust Cycle ReduxA Casual Introduction to the Theory of ConstraintsA 22nd Century Thought Experiment, Or, A World Without Modern Monetary TheoryWeekender: Stores of Value, Feedback Loops, and Gresham's LawWeekender: The Trouble With Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)Weekender: The Von Mises Prophecy ExplainedWeekender: Gold is a Credit Default SwapA Public Service Announcement: Soros on False TrendsWhy Bears Seem Smarter: An Alternative TakeThe Entropy Principle: Why Companies Like Yahoo Turn to CrapThoughts on the P/E RatioThe Astonishing Hypocrisy of Efficient Market TheoristsKeynesian Psychology With Austrian Tails

Themes & Trends

(select a post)Attention Frustrated Chartists: It ain't HFT - it's the Macro!A Dangerous Market Full of CrosscurrentsEurozone Crisis: Back on the Front BurnerConcerning Gray Swans: Europe, China, Profit Margins and The FedWild West JOBS Act and Musical ChairsThe Return of Ugly GoldilocksGold Looks Terrible Part II: Clarifying ThoughtsHome Builders (Technically Speaking)Downgrades and Mellonists: This is What the Market FearsGlobal Macro Notes: The Bond King Gets DesperateGlobal Macro Notes: S&P 400? The Deflation Shock ScenarioGlobal Macro Notes: Pension Funds and the Zero BubbleMilking the Consumer Cash Cow -- How Much Longer? Global Macro Notes: The Great CompressionGlobal Macro Notes: Deeper Implications of Middle East Turmoil Global Macro Notes: Pondering the High Cost of FoodWeekender: The Age of Cyberwar is HereWeekender: Did China Just Ring a Bell? Global Macro Notes: Twelve Major Risks for 2011Why Investors Should Be Terrified of DeflationStrip Mining the U.S. EconomyIt's The Debt, Stupid

Strategic Intelligence Reports

(select a post)Caterpillar Ignites Fear for Equipment StocksNetworking Stocks: Ready to Short? SIR #25: Deep Value Solar Rebound CandidatesSIR #24: Oil & Gas Stocks With Explosive PotentialSIR #23: Gold Stocks Poised for Another RunSIR #22: Social Media Fantasy TradesSIR #21: Retail Stocks Getting WhackedSIR #20: Airlines Ripping as Oil PukesSIR #19: Truckers Running on FumesSIR #18: Rising Tide Lifts ShippersSIR #17: Two Momentum Champs Struggling on the RopesSIR #16: Spotlight on Solar -- Value and GrowthSIR #15: Opportunities in Oil SandsSIR #14: Three Retail Stocks Ripe For DeclineSIR #13: The Trouble With Regional BanksSIR #12: Quick Service Restaurants Poised for Even Quicker DeclineSIR #11: Three Explosive Opportunities in Natural GasSIR #10: Telecom - Out With the Old and In With the NewSIR #9: Winners and Losers in the Agflation TrendSIR #8: Expanding Potential in Chinese Media StocksSIR #7: Oil, Coal and Natural Gas Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) - Attractive Yield or Dangerous Bubble?SIR #6: Three Silver Stocks That Could Outshine GoldSIR #5: Power Up Your Portfolio With UraniumSIR #4: Three Gold Miners Strike it RichSIR #3: Fertilizer Stocks Poised for GrowthSIR #2: Feast on These Three Restaurant ShortsSIR #1: Three Short Candidates in the Luxury Retail Space

View From the Turret

(select a post)View From the Turret: JPMorgan Touches Off A New Risk FirestormView From the Turret: The AftermathView From the Turret: Muddy WatersView From the Turret: The Drift Before the Storm...View From the Turret: Sell In... April??View From the Turret: The Beat Goes On...View From the Turret: What About China?View From the Turret: The Trend ContinuesView From the Turret: Shakeout or Smackdown?View From the Turret: Pick & Roll...View From the Turret: Climbing the Wall of WorryView From the Turret: Technical ResistanceView From the Turret: A Day Late and a Dollar ShortView From the Turret: Widespread BreakoutView From the Turret: Strength or Seasonal Effect?View From the Turret: New Year, New BreakoutView From the Turret: Light Holiday TradingView From the Turret: Holiday TradingView From the Turret: Emerging RiskView From the Turret: Relief RallyView From the Turret: European BounceView From The Turret: Euro-Zone FatigueView From the Turret: Mixed SignalsView From the Turret: All About the HeadlinesView From The Turret: Constructive ActionView From the Turret: Above the FoldView From the Turret: Where's The Volume??View From the Turret: Ready, Aim, Fire!View From the Turret: Looking Over the EdgeView From the Turret: The Fed High-Low GameView From the Turret: Resistance and SupportView From the Turret: More VolatilityView From the Turret: A Dangerous Game of ChickenView From the Turret: Return From WyomingView From the Turret: Floundering FundamentalsView From the Turret: Uncertainty PrevailsView From the Turret: Downgrade AftermathView From the Turret: Damned if We Do...View From the Turret: Back to the HighsView From the Turret: Earnings, Acquisitions and DebtView From the Turret: Earnings Season, Here We ComeView From the Turret: Classifying the RallyView From the Turret: One Way or The OtherView From the Turret: Crisis ModeView From the Turret: Contagion Risk AheadView From the Turret: Got a Job?View From the Turret: StatesideView From the Turret: Looking Over the EdgeView From the Turret: Following the Commodity BreakView From the Turret: Folding CommoditiesView From the Turret: Resolving HigherView From the Turret: No Man's LandView From the Turret: Open SeasonView From the Turret: Against ResistanceView From the Turret: New Opportunities for a New QuarterView From the Turret: Above the LineView From the Turret: Missiles, Nukes and RiskView From the Turret: AftershocksView From the Turret: The Churn GameView From the Turret: Chaos and CrisisView From the Turret: Shifting ConditionsView From the Turret: Egypt, Airlines and GoldView From the Turret: The Beat Goes OnView From the Turret: Trade Like an EgyptianView From the Turret: The Bearcub Gets LegsView From the Turret: A Crowded TheaterView From the Turret: Welcome to Earnings Season!View From The Turret: Predicting vs. TradingView From the Turret: The Week in BetweenView From the Turret: Tis the SeasonView From the Turret: Last-Chance PositioningView From the Turret: Shaking off the HolidayView From The Turret: Trading the Stealth ShiftView From the Turret: Tight Turns AheadView From The Turret: Trading the QE2 AftermathView From the Turret: The QE2 Counterbalance PlanView From the Turret: Earnings Reaction QuadrantsView From the Turret: A World at WarView From the Turret: Bring On the ActionView From the Turret: Crossroads TradingView From the Turret: Extension CityView From The Turret: Broken RecordView From the Turret: Resistance LoomsView From The Turret: Extra Base HitsView From The Turret: Taking Aim at What's Left of the ConsumerView From the Turret: Bringing Back the BearView from the Turret: Playing Both SidesView From The Turret: Bulls Take the OffenseView From the Turret: Bracing For the Bear's Follow ThroughView From the Turret: Reset In Progress...View From The Turret: Positioning for Bear Market RalliesView From the Turret: Ugly Fundamentals and Extended TechnicalsView From the Turret: Casinos, Cards and China... Still Looking for ShortsView From the Turret: Slope of Hope, Whack-a-mole, and Options Expiration